成都市人口素质发展水平分析
Analysis of Development Level of Chengdu's Population Quality
【摘要】 人口素质是多学科研究的对象,所包含的内容不仅与人口学有关,还涉及政治学、社会学、经济学、地理学和医学等。当今世界,科学的发展,经济的振兴,乃至整个社会的进步都取决于劳动者素质的提高和合格人才的培养。这引起了广大学者对人口素质的研究。目前,国内外许多学者对人口素质水平的衡量指数与评价指标体系以及人口素质对社会、经济、环境的影响等作了大量的研究,取得了一批丰硕的研究成果。但是,就一个城市的人口素质研究而言,数理统计的方法与影响因素的综合分析研究还不多见。目前,成都市业已形成三大圈层的人口地理分布形式,本文创新性地利用这一研究成果,在人口素质基本理论综述的基础上,对成都市的人口素质水平进行纵向、横向及内部区县的对比统计分析,试求全面反应出成都市人口素质发展水平,继而寻求成都市人口素质协调发展的途径,促进人口素质更好更快更全面地发展,以利于整个城市综合水平的提升。本文共分为六个部分:第一部分首先对“人口素质”相关国内外研究进行综述分析,阐释研究背景;第二部分主要介绍人口素质的基本理论和影响关系;第三部分描述成都市“三大圈层”的人口地理分布现状;第四部分运用相关具体数据和统计分析软件,对成都市人口素质水平进行纵向、横向及内部全面的定性描述与定量分析;第五部分针对三大圈层的实际情况提出具体的发展对策与建议;最后得出以下结论:1、经过50余年的发展,成都市人口死亡率、婴儿死亡率和文盲率大幅下降,受教育人口比重不断上升,人口素质水平得到了显著提高。2、与代表我国东、中部的城市上海和武汉相比,成都市PQLI指数为97.57,水平居中,并未明显落后于东部发达城市。3、成都市HDI指数为0.6640,在全国25个省会城市中排名第六位,表明其综合人口素质在国内处于中上水平。4、成都市的人口素质发展具有自身的优势,但教育经费投入和人均受教育年限以及教育科研、医疗保健等基础设施的配备与体制建设等不如发达国家和地区。5、成都市内部各圈层(区、市、县)人口素质发展水平存在较大差异。按人力因子排序的结果与成都市三大圈层的人口地理分布特征极为吻合。教育因子对人口素质水平的综合得分影响较大。6、成都市应针对三大圈层的实际情况,统筹兼顾,提高人口整体素质。 

【Abstract】 The population quality is a subject of multidisciplinary research. The content is not only concerned about the demology, but also politics, sociology, economics, geography and medicine. In the world, scientific development, economic revitalization, and the whole progress of society depend on the improvement of the workers' quality and the training of qualified people. Research on the population quality attracts vast number of scholars. At present, many domestic and foreign scholars made many studies on measure index, evaluation index system of the population quality level, as well as the social, economic and environmental impacts. They achieved a number of fruitful research results. However, methods of mathematical statistics and comprehensive analysis of influencing factors are not enough to studies of population quality of one city.At present, Chengdu has been formed geographical population distribution of "Three Big Circle". This paper uses this research production creatively, summarizes the basic theory of population quality, conducts a longitudinal, lateral and internal comparative statistical analysis of the development level of Chengdu's population quality, tries to fully reflect the actual development level, and seeks for a harmonious way which could promote a better, faster and more comprehensive development of population quality, and upgrade the comprehensive level of the entire city.This paper could be divided into six parts. The first part concludes relevant domestic and foreign theories on "population quality" and interpretation of research background. The second part mainly introduces the basic theory and the influencing relationship. The third part describes the actuality of geographical population distribution of Chengdu's "Three Big Circle". The fourth part concludes the longitudinal, lateral and internal comprehensive qualitative description and quantitative analysis of the development level of Chengdu's population quality. The fifth part puts forward specific countermeasures and suggestions for different three layers. Finally, conclusions as follows:1. Chengdu's population death rate, infant death rate, and illiteracy rate descend observably. Educated people rate ascends remarkably. The population quality has been significantly enhanced in past more than 50 years.2. Contrasting with Shanghai and Wuhan which are the representative of domestic eastern and central cities shows that Chengdu's PQLI index is 97.57, in the middle level, and little less than eastern developed city's.3. Chengdu's HDI index is 0.6640, the sixth of 25 capital cities. Chengdu's integrate population quality is on the national medium level.4. Chengdu has its own advantages of population quality development. But education outlay investment, average educated year, basic establishment and system construction of education, research and medical treatment are not as good as developed nation and region.5. There are significant differences of population quality in the different regions of Chengdu. According to labour factor, compositer result obviously anastomoses with geographical population distribution trait of Chengdu's "Three Big Circle". Education factor influences more on integrated score of population quality level.6. According to the actual situation of "Three Big Circle", Chengdu should plan as a whole, give attention to more things, and develop the whole population quality. 

【关键词】 人口身体素质; 人口科学文化素质; 成都市; 教育
【Key words】 Population fitness quality; Population scientific and cultural quality ; Chengdu ; Education
  成都市人口素质发展水平分析

摘要 3-5
Abstract 5-6
1 前言 9-15
    1.1 研究的目的与意义 9-10
    1.2 国内外研究现状 10-13
        1.2.1 国外研究综述 10-11
        1.2.2 国内研究综述 11-13
    1.3 研究的思路结构与技术方法 13-15
2 人口素质的基本内涵 15-21
    2.1 人口素质的涵义及其重要性 15-16
    2.2 构成人口素质的要素 16-17
    2.3 人口素质对社会、经济、环境的影响 17-21
        2.3.1 人口素质对社会发展的影响 17-18
        2.3.2 人口素质对经济增长的影响 18-19
        2.3.3 人口素质对生态环境的影响 19-21
3 成都市人口地理分布与三大圈层的划分 21-25
    3.1 成都市人口地理概述 21-22
    3.2 成都市三个层圈的划分 22-25
4 成都市人口素质发展水平分析 25-54
    4.1 1949—2000 年成都市人口素质的纵向比较分析 25-32
        4.1.1 1949—2000 年成都市人口死亡率分析 25-28
        4.1.2 1974—1982 年成都市婴儿死亡率分析 28-29
        4.1.3 1949—2000 年成都市人口科学文化素质的变化 29-32
    4.2 成都市人口素质与其他城市的横向指数分析 32-41
        4.2.1 PQLI 指数对比 32-34
        4.2.2 HDI 指数对比 34-36
        4.2.3 成都市人口素质发展的优势 36-38
        4.2.4 成都市人口素质发展的不足 38-41
    4.3 用因子分析法对成都市人口素质水平进行统计分析 41-54
        4.3.1 指标体系的建立 42-44
        4.3.2 样本数据的处理 44-45
        4.3.3 样本方差的解释 45-46
        4.3.4 因子载荷矩阵 46-51
        4.3.5 结果分析 51-54
5 对策与建议 54-59
    5.1 中心城区 55-56
    5.2 近郊区 56-57
    5.3 远郊区 57-59
6 结论 59-61
参考文献 61-64
致谢 64-65
研究生期间科研成果 65