济南市农民收入问题剖析及持续增长对策
Analysis and Countermeasure of Sustained Growth on Peasant Income in Jinan City
【摘要】 本文针对我国农民收入长期低而不稳、增长困难的现实,选择济南市为研究对象,以探讨农民持续增收的有效途径和保障机制为目的;以系统论、农村社会学和农业经济学为指导,采用定性与定量相结合、理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,对改革开放30年济南市农民收入变化规律和现状构成及其影响农民收入增长的有利与不利因素等问题进行了剖析,在此基础上,本着经济、社会和生态效益相兼顾的原则,制定出符合济南市实际的发展模式和政策保障措施。研究结论如下:(1)改革开放以来,济南市农民收入发生了巨大变化,人均纯收入由1978年的110.5元提高到2007年的6300元,整体平均生活水平基本进入小康;以恩格尔系数衡量,调查点(章丘市文祖镇)有24.7%农户已进入富裕行列,28.0%农户进入小康,41.0%农户处在温饱阶段,还有6.3%的农户尚处于贫困阶段。回顾农民收入发展历史,其增长速度呈现出明显的阶段性,即快速、缓慢、高速、缓慢和再快速五个时期。对影响收入增长速率的原因进行了深入分析,并采用自回归和移动平均相结合的方法建立了ARIMA模型,对济南市未来收入进行了预测。(2)对农民收入的现状与构成进行了深入分析。得出全市农民收入结构已呈现出多元化格局,工资性收入已占42.0%,二、三产业收入占16.5%,农业收入仅占33.4%;同地区农民之间收入差距拉大,调查点(长清区双泉乡)7.6%的最高组与3.5%的最低组收入水平之比为10.7:1,基尼系数达为0.405,该镇尚有3.5%的农户尚处在贫困线以下,说明采用平均统计数据来表达某一地区收入水平,往往掩盖了内部贫富差距;此外,不同地区农民之间、农民与城镇居民之间的收入差距也较大。(3)分析寻找出,有利于促进农民收入增长的七个有利因素分别为:国民经济快速增长的带动,市级惠农政策的刺激,农业综合生产能力提高的拉动,产业结构调整优化的带动,实施城市化战略、促进劳动力转移的促进,农业科技教育事业快速发展的推动及其农村社会事业不断完善的保障作用。制约和影响农民收入增长的不利因素有:人均农业资源占有量少,农业产业结构调整不科学,小规模分散生产制约产业化、标准化经营的发展,农业基础设施薄弱、阻碍生产力的再提高,财政支农投入低而不稳,农业产出比较效益低、影响农民生产积极性,农业技术推广体系服务功能不到位,劳动力整体素质偏低、不适应现代农业发展需要,城乡二元经济结构的存在、农村剩余劳动力转移困难等。(4)在分析理清农民收入发展变化规律及因果关系的基础上,探讨制定出促进全市农民持续增收应牢牢把握:稳定增加物质投入,依靠科技进步和农业产业化经营三个方向;发挥区域优势、优化产业布局,培育设施农业、农产品精深加工、特色品牌,花卉种苗、现代物流等八条途径。建立和完善确保农民持续增收的六项保障机制:即农业产业化经营良性发展的保障机制,以工促农、以城带乡的长效投入体制,科教兴农的长效保障机制,减轻农民负担的长效监管机制,改变城乡二元结构的长效发展战略,重视“三农”工作的组织领导机制。此外,还指出,实现农民持续增收是个长期、艰巨而复杂的系统工程,涉及经济、政治、文化等多个方面,应站在科学发展观、坚持城乡统筹协调发展的战略高度,多措并举,多管齐下、持之以恒

【Abstract】 In this paper, for the fact of long-term response to the peasants in our country is low and unstable income, an increase of the difficulties of reality, we choose to study in Jinan City. The purpose is discussing the effective way to make peasants continued to explore and safeguard mechanism. We are using system theory, rural sociology and agricultural economics as a guide, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis as the methods, to analyze some issues of reform and opening up 30 years in Jinan like changes of the income of the farmers and its constraints, current status of the income of the farmers of the favorable, unfavorable growth factors, and so on. Based on this, we work out practical models and policies for the development of safeguard in line with the Jinan City ,by the principle of balance of economic, social and ecological benefits. Conclusions of the study are as follows:1) Since reform and opening up, there are many dramatically changes on income of the farmers of Jinan City. The per capita income from 110.5 Yuan in 1978 to 6,300 Yuan in 2007.The overall average standard of living of the basic access to a well-off. By the use of the Engel's coefficient to measure, the survey points (Zhang qiu City text ancestral town) have 24.7 percent of households have access to well-off ,28.0 percent enter the well-off , 41.0 percent have food and clothing for farmers in the stage, as well as 6.3% of farmers still in the stage of poverty. Recalling the history of the development of the income of the farmers, the growth rate showed a clear phase, that is, fast, slow, fast, slow and then fast . We have an in-depth analysis on the impact of income growth rate of the reasons .We established the combining ARIMA model by the use of autoregressive and moving average method, and forecast the future earnings of the Jinan City .2) The peasants' current incoming situation and formation were deeply analysised. The result indicated that the whole city peasants' income structure has already displayed a diversified patterns: Salary income accounts for 42.0%, and the second and the third industry accounts for 16.5%, although the agriculture only accounts for 33.4%. The gap plays immensity between the peasants in the same area. In the inquiring locus (Chang Qi section , Shuang Quan village in Jinan province) , the ratio of income between 7.6% of the maximal group and 3.5% of the minimum group reached 10.7 to 1. the Geordie modulus reaches for 0.405. There is 3.5% peasant in the town unerring the poverty line still. It indicated that it has covered the inside difference with the data counting averagely to come to express the income horizontal. The income gap in the peasant and the city and town dwell is also bigger.3)It seeks out seven factors that advance boosting the peasants' income: enhancement national economy increases rapidly; stimulating the favorable peasants policy; moving overall agricultural productivity improves; Spurring on industrial restructuring optimizes; putting into effect urbanizing strategy and promoting boosting a labor force changing; Agriculture science, technology and education cause develop rapidly and their unceasingly perfect guarantee of rural area social undertaking effects. The growing unfavorable factors restricting and affecting the peasants' income just as follows:Per capita agricultural resource occupies amounts low; Agriculture industrial restructuring block of science; Disperse producing restraint putting to use in production , standardize the development managing in miniature; Agricultural infrastructure weak and block productivity improvement; Finance supports agriculture throwing into low but unsteady , that parallel beneficial result of agricultural output affects the peasant enthusiasm for production low,; Agriculture technology transfer system serves a function not arriving at a place; Labor force overall quality insists to hang down , inadaptable modern agriculture develops need; The dual structure in urban and rural economy existence, surplus rural labor laborers changes difficulty waiting.4)In the basis of analysis of clear laws of development and changes in the income of the farmers and the causal relationship,discussion and Work out to promote the city's farmers continued to increase should take,there are eight approach,such as three directions of steady increase in material input, rely on scientific and technological progress and industrialization of agriculture,regional advantages and optimize the industrial layout,nurture agriculture,intensive processing of agricultural products and brand characteristics,flower seed and modern logistics: the establishment and improvement of six safeguard mechanism on farmers continued to increase: protection mechanism benign on industrial management of agriculture development, long-term investment system to promote agricultural and rural to urban, long-lasting protection mechanism of agriculture through science and education, long-term regulatory mechanism of reduce the burden on farmers, long-term development strategy of change the urban-rural dual structure, mechanism for organization and leadership on good attention to "three rural" work.Besides, point out that the realization of farmers continued to increase is a Long-term, arduous and complicated systematic project,and relate to Economic, political, cultural and so on ,but should stand on Strategic perspective of the scientific concept of development and adhere to coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and the way of using a variety of measures and keep a multi-pronged, sustained method is needed。

【关键词】 济南市; 农民收入; 剖析; 持续增长; 对策
【Key words】 Jinan; The peasants’ income; Analysis; Sustained growth; Countermeasures
  济南市农民收入问题剖析及持续增长对策

摘要 7-9
Abstract 9-11
1 引言 12-17
    1.1 研究背景 12
    1.2 国内外研究现状 12-16
        1.2.1 国外农民收入问题研究现状 12-13
        1.2.2 国内农民收入及增收机制研究现状 13-16
    1.3 研究的目的意义 16-17
2 研究方法 17-18
3 结果分析 18-67
    3.1 济南市农民收入状况和特点 18-32
        3.1.1 济南市农业概况 18-19
        3.1.2 农民收入增长速率的阶段性划分 19-24
            3.1.2.1 快速增长时期（1978～1984 年） 20-21
            3.1.2.2 低速增长时期（1985～1992 年） 21-22
            3.1.2.3 高速增长时期（1993～1996 年） 22-23
            3.1.2.4 缓慢增长时期（1997～2003 年） 23-24
            3.1.2.5 增幅回升时期（2004 年～今） 24
        3.1.3 农民收入结构呈现多元化 24-26
        3.1.4 农民收入差距比较与分析 26-30
            3.1.4.1 同地区农民之间的收入差距 26-27
            3.1.4.2 不同地区间农民收入差距 27-29
            3.1.4.3 农民与城镇居民收入差距 29-30
        3.1.5 农民收入与国民经济发展不同步 30
        3.1.6 济南市农民生活水平分析 30-32
    3.2 影响济南市农民收入主要因素分析 32-48
        3.2.1 影响农民增收的有利因素 33-39
            3.2.1.1 国民经济快速增长的带动 33
            3.2.1.2 市级惠农政策的刺激 33-34
            3.2.1.3 农业综合生产能力提高的拉动 34-36
            3.2.1.4 农村产业结构调整优化的带动 36-37
            3.2.1.5 城镇化战略实施的影响 37
            3.2.1.6 农村剩余劳动力转移的促进 37
            3.2.1.7 农业科技教育事业快速发展的推动 37-38
            3.2.1.8 农村社会事业不断完善的保障 38-39
        3.2.2 影响农民增收的不利因素 39-48
            3.2.2.1 人均农业资源占有量少 39-41
            3.2.2.2 农业产业结构调整仍不科学 41-42
            3.2.2.3 小规模分散生产制约农业产业化、标准化经营 42
            3.2.2.4 农业基础设施建设薄弱，阻碍生产力再提高 42-43
            3.2.2.5 财政支农水平低而不稳 43
            3.2.2.6 农业产出比较效益低，影响农民生产积极性 43-45
            3.2.2.7 农业技术推广体系不完善,农业新技术推广应用不到位 45-46
            3.2.2.8 农村劳动力科技素质偏低，不适应现代农业发展需要 46-48
            3.2.2.9 城乡二元经济结构存在，农村剩余劳动力就业困难 48
    3.3 济南市农民收入的定量分析与预测 48-53
        3.3.1 线性回归分析 48-49
        3.3.2 曲线拟合分析 49-50
        3.3.3 ARIMA 模型的确定与预测 50-53
    3.4 促进农民收入持续增长的途径探讨 53-60
        3.4.1 把握现代农业发展的三个方向 53-55
        3.4.2 培育现代农业经营增长点 55-57
        3.4.3 发挥区域优势，优化产业结构布局 57-60
    3.5 建立和完善农民持续增收的长效保障机制 60-67
        3.5.1 完善农业产业化经营良性发展的保障机制 60-62
        3.5.2 建立并完善以工促农、以城带乡的长效投入机制 62-63
        3.5.3 建立并完善科教兴农的长效推进机制 63-64
        3.5.4 建立并完善减轻农民负担的长效监管机制 64-65
        3.5.5 建立改变城乡二元结构的长效发展机制 65-66
        3.5.6 建立并完善重视“三农”工作的组织领导机制 66-67
4 讨论 67-68
5 主要参考文献 68-71
致谢 71