长三角区域经济发展对环境质量影响的实证分析
The Impact of Economic Development on Environmental Quality: An Empirical Analysis in the Yangtze River Delta
【摘要】 改革开放以来,作为我国经济最发达的地区,长三角取得了令世人瞩目的经济成就。但长三角经济的高速增长对环境也施加了日益沉重的压力。因此研究长三角经济增长和环境质量之间的关系具有重要的理论和现实意义。而如何实施区域可持续发展,如何在经济发展的同时保持环境不受破坏,使二者相互支撑,是摆在我们面前的一项艰巨任务。本文就是基于这个目的,通过长三角区域经济发展对环境质量影响的分析,并构建区域经济与环境协调发展评价指标体系,对长三角经济与环境发展进行综合评价,探讨如何在继续促进经济快速发展的同时改善生态环境,促进经济与环境的协调和可持续发展。本文在研究过程中,主要采用理论分析和实证检验相结合、定性分析和定量分析相结合的研究方法,尤其注重计量经济方法的运用。研究内容包括:(1)长三角经济发展与环境关系状况的总体分析;(2)长三角经济增长要素对环境的影响分析;(3)长三角经济与环境协调发展评价指标体系、模型和方法;(4)长三角16市经济与环境协调发展综合评价;(5)长三角16市环境库兹涅茨曲线验证分析;(6)长三角经济与环境协调发展对策研究。通过系统研究,本文得出以下主要结论:(1)按照钱纳里的划分标准,上海目前处于工业化第三阶段的后期,而江苏和浙江处于工业化第二阶段的后期。由于工业化第三阶段的污染强度低于第二阶段,因此,工业化所处阶段决定了上海的环境质量开始改善,而江苏和浙江仍然处于环境质量恶化或未改善阶段,但上海的环境质量改善是相对江浙两地来说的。(2)利用江苏1999年和2007年工业行业截面数据进行的因素分析表明,工业废水和工业废气两种污染物排放的增加主要由经济增长的规模效应引起,同时,工业各行业产值比重变动引起的结构效应为负,不利于环境质量的改善。(3)总体上长三角经济与环境处于整体协调发展水平,但是从2005年起这个协调水平在下降。(4)环境库兹涅茨曲线并不是一种必然的规律,环境库兹涅茨曲线依赖于特定的假定,经济增长和环境之间是一种复杂的关系。最后,根据实证研究结果,从六个方面提出了促进长三角区域经济与环境协调发展的对策建议。

【Abstract】 Yangtze River Delta has resulted in unprecedented economic expansion since 1978. However, rapid economic growth puts huge pressure on the environment. Thus, it is very important to research the relationship between economic development and environmental quality. How to implement regional sustainable development and maintain the environment from damage while developing the economic is a difficult task. Through analyzing the impact of economic development on environmental quality in the Yangtze River Delta and building a regional evaluation system of the coordinated development of environment and economic development we can appraise the Yangtze River Delta's economic development and environment and explore ways to improve the ecological environment while promoting rapid economic development and promote the coordinative and sustainable development of the environment and the economy.In our study, we combine theory analysis and empirical tests with qualitative and quantitative analysis. At the same time, we especially attach important to the use of econometric methods. The study includes: (1) the overall analysis of the relationship between economic development and environment in Yangtze River Delta; (2) the effects of elements of economic growth on environment in the Yangtze River Delta; (3) study of index system,models and method about appraising coordinative development status between environment and economy in the Yangtze River Delta; (4) evaluation of coordinative development status between environment and economy in the Yangtze River Delta; (5) study of Environmental Kuznets Curve in the Yangtze River Delta; (6) study of coordinative development strategies between environment and economy in the Yangtze River Delta.This paper has achieved some conclusions, as follows:(1) In accordance with Chenery’s divided standards, Shanghai is now in the late third stage of industrialization, but Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the late second phase of industrialization. The pollution intensity of the third stage of industrialization is lower than the second phase. Therefore, the stage of industrialization decides the quality of the environment began to improve in Shanghai, but Jiangsu and Zhejiang are still in the deterioration or improvement in the quality of the environment. The improvement of the quality of the environment in Shanghai is relative in terms of both Jiangsu and Zhejiang.(2) The factors analysis using Jiangsu industrial cross-section data in 1999 and 2007 show that an increase of the emissions of industrial wastewater and industrial waste gas is primarily caused by the scale effect of economic growth. At the same time, the effect of the structure caused by the changes of the proportion of industrial output value is negative and not conducive to the improvement of the quality of the environment.(3) Environment and economy are in the level of the coordinated development in the Yangtze River Delta, but the level of the coordination is on the decline from 2005.(4) The Environmental Kuznets Curve is not a necessary phenomenon in theory. EKC depends upon specific assumptions and the relationship between growth and environmental pollution is also very complex. Finally, according to empirical findings, we can put forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the coordinated development of the environment and the economy from six aspects in the Yangtze River Delta.

【关键词】 长三角; 区域经济发展; 环境质量; 协调发展
【Key words】 Yangtze River Delta; Economic Development; Environmental Quality; Coordinative Development
  长三角区域经济发展对环境质量影响的实证分析

摘要 3-4
ABSTRACT 4-5
第一章 绪论 8-17
    1.1 选题背景及研究意义 8-10
        1.1.1 选题背景 8-9
        1.1.2 研究意义 9-10
    1.2 国内外文献研究综述 10-15
        1.2.1 经济发展与环境污染关系的实证研究 10-13
        1.2.2 经济与环境协调发展的定量分析 13-15
    1.3 本文研究内容与技术路线 15-16
    1.4 研究创新与不足 16-17
第二章 经济发展对环境质量影响研究的理论基础 17-22
    2.1 可持续发展理论 17-19
        2.1.1 可持续发展内涵 17-18
        2.1.2 区域可持续发展论 18-19
    2.2 经济与环境协调发展理论 19-21
        2.2.1 经济与环境协调发展内涵 19
        2.2.2 经济与环境协调发展的相关理论 19-21
    2.3 环境库茨涅茨理论 21-22
第三章 长三角经济发展对环境质量影响的效应分析 22-38
    3.1 长三角经济发展对环境的影响及其现状分析 22-27
        3.1.1 长三角经济发展对环境影响的总体分析 22-25
        3.1.2 长三角地区产业结构对环境的影响分析 25-27
    3.2 第二产业内部结构对环境的影响——以江苏为例 27-31
    3.3 经济的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应的因素分解分析 31-35
        3.3.1 环境影响因素的分解分析 31-32
        3.3.2 经济规模、结构变化、技术进步对环境质量影响的实证分析 32-35
    3.4 长三角经济与环境关系的时序实证分析 35-36
    3.5 本章小结 36-38
第四章 长三角经济发展与环境质量的协调性分析 38-51
    4.1 长三角经济与环境协调发展定量指标体系、模型和方法 38-44
        4.1.1 长三角经济与环境协调发展评价指标体系的构建 38-40
        4.1.2 协调发展评价模型及判别标准 40-42
        4.1.3 经济与经环境综合实力指数计算方法-主成分分析方法 42-44
    4.2 长三角经济与环境协调的实证分析 44-49
        4.2.1 2000-2006 年长三角16 市经济与环境协调发展类综合比较 47-48
        4.2.2 2000-2006 年长三角16 市经济与环境协调发展型综合比较 48-49
    4.3 本章小结 49-51
第五章 长三角环境库兹涅茨曲线验证 51-57
    5.1 长三角经济增长与工业“三废”计量模型研究 51-55
    5.2 长三角经济增长与环境实力变化计量模型研究 55-56
    5.3 本章小结 56-57
第六章 结论及建议 57-61
    6.1 结论 57-58
    6.2 建议 58-61
致谢 61-62
参考文献 62-68
附图 68-69
附录：作者在攻读硕士学位期间发表的论文 69